Four Big Worries in Asia
June 19, 2009
Amid new aggressive posturing by Kim Jong Il, USC’s David Kang looks at the major unresolved security concerns that could destabilize the region.
1) North Korea’s Nukes
North Korea’s nuclear aspirations are a longstanding and seemingly intractable issue, made even more vital by the uncertainty of Kim Jong Il’s succession, says Kang, director of the Korean Studies Institute at USC.
“Everybody on the outside agrees that they want North Korea to denuclearize ... but they tend to differ on tactic: coercion or engagement, carrot or stick,” he notes.
It’s unclear whether a new regime led by Kim Jong Il’s youngest son, Kim Jong Un, would need to be more aggressive to maintain control, Kang says. Another worry for the United States is the possibility of North Korea selling nuclear expertise and materials to terrorist organizations.
Should North Korea collapse, the number of refugees could potentially exceed the entire current global refugee population, according to Kang.
“U.S. policy is really clear. We care, number one, about North Korea’s nuclear program,” Kang says. “A distant second is human rights.”
2) China’s Rise
As China continues to grow in economic and military power, debate has emerged in policy circles about whether this rise is a threat or an opportunity.
“Would we prefer China to be rich and strong, or do we want them to be weak and poor?” Kang asks. “If you frame the debate that way, it’s pretty clear that a weak and poor China would be much more destabilizing to the region.”
Kang says that the Obama administration appears to be continuing the Bush administration’s policy towards China, which famously asked China to wield its growing influence as a “responsible stakeholder” in world affairs.
“A generation from now, if China continues its growth and it’s clear that there are two world superpowers, will there be modus vivendi, or will we fall into a tense, suspicious Cold War-type relationship?” Kang wonders.
For the moment, Kang says, China seems primarily focused on territorial integrity, economic growth, and respect from the international community, rather than invasion or territorial aggrandizement.
3) Past Grievances
Historical events can be interpreted in numerous ways, a fact that has had real effect on international relations in Asia.
For example, there has been friction in recent years between Japan and its neighbors over the content of Japanese history textbooks, the treatment of “comfort women” during World War II, and the ownership of disputed islands. As Kang notes, Japan and South Korea haven’t yet been able to formally agree on their maritime border, despite a robust economic relationship.
In terms of politics, conflicts over past history are also a convenient way to bolster domestic support.
“These are not historical issues. They are claims about history that manifest in politics today,” Kang explains. “The problem is how countries define themselves, what they claim to be important, and how they define national identity.”
4) The Role of the United States
The U.S. is no longer the undisputed hegemon in the world, but, “that being said, every country in East Asia still wants more attention from the United States and better relations with the United States,” Kang says.
Large as the U.S. may loom, countries in Asia are now also looking to build ties with China and among themselves.
China is the largest trading partner of Japan and North Korea, and the economic center of the region, though the United States remains the political leader, Kang notes.
“There has been no kicking out of the United States from East Asia,” he adds. “But the countries are much more economically, politically and culturally intertwined today than 20 or 30 years ago.”
Kang concludes: “The U.S. is increasingly in a position of reacting to changes in East Asia, rather than instigating them.”
David Kang, professor of International Relations and Business at the USC College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, is the author of China Rising: Peace, Power, and Order in East Asia (2007) and Crony Capitalism: Corruption and Development in South Korea and the Philippines (2002) and co-author of Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies (2003).